Ready Or Not - The First Breeders Cup on a synthetic Track

History In The Making

The Breeders Cup will make history in 2008 when it is hosted for the first time on a synthetic surface. The honor goes to Santa Anita Park and its new Pro-Ride track, which replaces a controversial cushion Track. Synthetic, or engineered, tracks are not popular among all horsemen, and in fact have as many detractors as proponents. Nick Zito is among the most vocal and respected detractors. Zito argues that the rich tradition of dirt racing is what powers the machine of the racing industry. Supporters of synthetic racing surfaces cite statistics indicating a allowance in catastrophic injuries. This debate is, I am afraid, in its infancy, but it won't slow down the momentum foremost up to Breeders Cup 2008.

Breeders Cup 2008 is a two-day extravaganza beginning Friday, October 24 with five Breeders Cup races featuring the Distaff Division. And nine more Breeders Cup races, including the Breeders Cup Turf and the Breeders Cup Classic, are scheduled for Saturday, October 25. There are a total of six races on turf and eight on Pro-Ride (synthetic) during the Breeders Cup weekend at Santa Anita.

What Are Race Tracks Made Of?

It used to be the case that a racing exterior was either going to be dirt or turf, with rare exceptions. Most dirt tracks are composed of about 80% sand, with the remaining 20% a mixture of clay and silt. The new trend is synthetic surfaces, which are springing up everywhere, such as the new Polytrack surfaces. European-designed Polytrack is a synthetic mixture of wax-coated polypropylene fibers, recycled rubber, and fine sand. Polytrack is what is known as an engineered racing surface. The idea is that the Polytrack is supposed to form a supportive "cushion" for the horses to run on. This cushion, in turn, provides added safety because of a more even mixture across the track. There is other advantage: easy and effective drainage, allowing for races in roughly any weather condition. Most dirt tracks are slightly tilted inward to facilitate drainage, so when it rains some spots are thicker and others are thinner, and this makes the exterior somewhat uneven. On a Polytrack surface, water seeps level through to a drainage ideas below, eliminating any uneven spots that might be found on dirt.

Polytrack was a hot topic in horse racing circles even before 2006 Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro broke down in the Preakness Stakes, and at last had to be euthanized on January 29, 2007 despite a heroic exertion by Dr. Dean Richardson (of the New Bolton center in Pennsylvania) to keep Barbaro alive. Some tracks in England have used Polytrack for years, and it's indeed beginning to catch on in the United States. Polytrack was first installed in the U.S. At Turfway Park in Florence, Ky in 2005. Before Turfway, the last major North American racetrack to setup an all-weather exterior was Remington Park in Oklahoma City. It opened in 1988 with Equitrack, a polymer-based exterior in which sand is covered with a wax coating. But by 1991, the track switched to dirt because the Equitrack exterior was beginning to disintegrate (melt) and create unforeseen problems. When horses raced over the damaged surface, they kicked up "particles of dust" from the track, and the horses would breathe in this dust, causing respiratory illnesses.

These problems are not supposed to happen with Polytrack. Keeneland Race course in Lexington, Kentucky installed Polytrack in 2006 and preliminary reports have been promising. The Thoroughbred Times released some fascinating figures from the 2006 Keeneland Fall meeting, numbers that may, in the long run, provide racing with its greatest benefit. The average margin of victory at the meet was 1.6 lengths, much tighter than the 2.9 and 3.9 average margins at the previous two fall sessions run over conventional dirt tracks. In addition, the average length in the middle of the first place and the last place finisher was down by about 13 lengths in 2006 when compared with 2005. In other words, the synthetic surfaces (Polytrack at least) seem to be generating more contentious and dramatic contests, not unlike races on the turf (grass).

California Is fascinating Fast

The California Horse Racing Board directed that all major tracks in the state have a form of engineered exterior in place by the end of 2007. Ground was broken at Del Mar in early 2007 for premise of a Polytrack exterior to be ready for the summer meet beginning July 18, 2007. Hollywood Park was the first track in California to hold a racing meet on an engineered track. The Inglewood race course excellent cushion Track for its main track in 2006. cushion Track and Polytrack are very similar, with subtle differences in composition. Santa Anita Park (Arcadia, California) has chosen cushion Track as well, and is targeting early September 2007 to unblemished premise (in time for the Oak Tree meet). Yet other synthetic exterior is in play at an American racetrack. Tapeta Footings, created by very prosperous trainer Michael Dickinson, will make its racing debut in Northern California in 2007 at Golden Gate Fields. premise is scheduled to begin in the summer barring delays. Tapeta has had great success as a training track at Dickinson's Maryland farm.

In March of 2007, Bay Meadows became the first victim of the fallout of the Chrb mandate, after being denied (by the California Racing Board) a two-year postponement to setup a synthetic racing surface. However, in May the Chrb granted Bay Meadows a temporary exemption for 2008 as long as Bay Meadows guaranteed its racing dates. Should involved parties at last fail to reach a compromise, this would end a long run (currently 73 years) for Bay Meadows (opened 1934). Bay Meadows President Jack Liebau, angered by the customary ruling in March, lamented it would mark a date of infamy for racing in California.

On May 4, 2007, Arlington Park opened its summer meet with a brand new Polytrack surface. The dirt exterior that it substituted had a significantly higher ration of silt and clay (40%) than most dirt courses. The unusual mixture proved a disadvantage for front runners and a help to closers, and Polytrack should continue or even intensify that trend.

Reactions from horsemen have been mixed with regard to the Polytrack revolution. Bob Holthus, who trained Lawyer Ron for the Kentucky Derby, said (in 2006) it's a shame Keeneland was installing the surface. That track hosts the Blue Grass Stakes, one of the more prestigious Derby prep races, and Holthus says it's good for horses to run on dirt in their final race before heading to the dirt track at Churchill Downs. As for Barbaro's injury, Holthus stated he didn't think a change of exterior would have prevented it. "I don't think it had anything to do with it," Holthus said. "Horses make bad steps and they can do it on any kind of surface."

Jockey Victor Espinoza, a fixture in Southern California racing, was reported as making a salient point: "...horses that come off the pace are more comfortable..."

Generally horses that achieve well on turf, but also show some dirt aptitude, achieve well on Polytrack. Pedigree can recommend aptitude, but finally the proof is in the pudding. Specific patterns in the work on of pedigree on Polytrack performance are emerging, though. Carson City, Deputy Minister, Dynaformer, Storm Cat, With Approval, Forty Niner, Sadler's Wells, and Gone West are all stallions whose progeny are performing exceptionally well on the new synthetic surfaces.

It'S All In The Blood

A brave new world in racing is dawning with the coming of Polytrack and the other synthetic racing surfaces. In new decades, the breeding business has invested untold millions in an exertion to "breed for speed." About 75% of all modern thoroughbreds can be traced back to a single horse: Northern Dancer (deceased 1990). Everything that makes a racehorse prosperous in America is changing, roughly overnight. The progeny of stallions like Mr. Prospector (deceased 1999) and Northern Dancer, and their progeny, may lose some of their work on unless their descendants achieve well on the new engineered surfaces. At first glance, some of the more prosperous "Polytrack sires" are Storm Cat (a grandson of Northern Dancer), Deputy minister (also a grandson of Northern Dancer), Dynaformer (another grandson of Northern Dancer), With Approval (a great-grandson of Northern Dancer), Forty Niner (a son of Mr. Prospector), Carson City (a son of Mr. Prospector and great-great-grandson of Northern Dancer), Gone West (a son of Mr. Prospector), and Sadler's Wells (a son of Northern Dancer). It is apparent that Northern Dancer and Mr. Prospector are well represented in this list. More and more dirt tracks are being substituted with engineered (synthetic) surfaces, and the breeding business will be holding a close eye on all the developments.

It is my plan that Northern Dancer progeny will probably fare good on Polytrack than Mr. Prospector's progeny. We have seen that Storm Cat, by all accounts a great source of Polytrack aptitude, is a grandson of Northern Dancer. prosperous Polytrack stallions Deputy minister and Sadler's Wells are first or second-generation descendants of Northern Dancer. Northern Dancer sired some of the world's greatest turf champions, including Nijinsky Ii, Sadler's Wells, and The Minstrel. And the correlation in the middle of turf success and Polytrack success would seem to indicate that the descendants of these turf champions will do well on the engineered surfaces. Northern Dancer, however, does not provide a source of great endurance, so his progeny are probably good superior to races on Polytrack of a mile and one-eighth or less.

The prosperous Polytrack stallions Forty Niner, Carson City, and Gone West are all sons of Mr. Prospector. But Mr. Prospector is revered as the great Triple Crown sire of our time. Mr. Prospector has influenced America's Triple Crown maybe more than any other sire. Curlin, new winner of the Preakness (May 19, 2007), is a grandson of Mr. Prospector. The Kentucky Derby (May 5, 2007) winner road Sense is a great-grandson of Mr. Prospector. Mr. Prospector's grandson Unbridled won the 1996 Kentucky Derby. His great-grandsons Real Quiet (1998 Kentucky Derby and Preakness) and Grindstone (1996 Kentucky Derby) won Triple Crown events. His son Conquistador Cielo won the 1982 Belmont. Other descendants winning Triple Crown events are Birdstone (2004 Belmont), Tank's hope (1985 Preakness), Hansel (1991 Preakness and Belmont), Timber Country (1995 Preakness), Victory Gallop (1998 Belmont), Thunder Gulch (1995 Derby and Belmont), Point Given (2001 Preakness and Belmont), Smarty Jones (2004 Derby and Preakness), Afleet Alex (2005 Preakness and Belmont), Editor's Note (1996 Belmont), Funny Cide (2003 Derby and Preakness), War stamp (2002 Derby and Preakness), and Fusaichi Pegasus (2000 Derby). There is probably no good dirt sire in the history of thoroughbred racing. But success as a stallion for racing on dirt will not necessarily translate into success for racing on Polytrack. Early indications are the breeding business may be leaning toward the great turf stallions for the future.

And what of the Triple Crown of the future? Will the Kentucky Derby ever be run on Polytrack? I'll believe it when I see it (I hope to be dead by then). But anything the exterior is in a race, the more races a horse has run on that exterior the easier it is to predict how a horse will run on that exterior the next time out. For the time being, there is not indeed an established handicapping methodology for handicapping the Polytrack tracks. This tends to create an environment that encourages a lot of surprises, and potentially long payoffs.

How Do You Handicap A Pedigree?

In late 2005 I sent an email to Dr. Steve Roman, father of the Dosage Index, speculating on the coming of Polytrack surfaces:

"...the knowledge of pedigree influences on the racing aptitude of a horse is going to be the most critical handicapping tool since the coming of the Beyer speed figure, at least in California, and maybe right now in Florence, Ky...and the theorize it will be so is because the vast majority of bettors has no idea what to make of a pedigree."

Steve Roman has been following the developments of engineered surfaces for some time, now. In my opinion, the contributions Steve Roman (father of the Dosage Index), Steven Crist (savior of the Daily Racing Form), and Andy Beyer (creator of the Beyer speed figure) have made to the racing business worldwide are unmatched.

I decided to power down my personal computer for a day and go to the closest Off-Track-Betting parlor (Otb) to check out an whole card run on Polytrack. I chose a typical day at the races at Keeneland on October 18, 2006, and observed the nine-race card from start to finish. The weather was slightly cloudy and the main (Polytrack) track was labeled fast. The results were illuminating. The average payout on a win bet for the whole card was a wholesome .87 (that's 10-to-1 odds) on average. The highest payout (Wellofaprize in the 7th) was an off-the-scale 7.20 (that's 52-to-1 odds). Wow! And it's no coincidence that the longest price on the board (Wellofaprize) is a grandson of Storm Cat. The pedigrees from the winners on the nine-race card were sprinkled with the names of familiar stallions: Storm Cat, Kris S, and Gone West, all proven turf (and now Polytrack) stallions. Storm Cat, Kris S, and Gone West are also proven dirt stallions, and therein lays the hidden to Polytrack aptitude. A stallion whose progeny do well on both grass and dirt seem to thrive on Polytrack as well. Whereas stallions whose progeny are pinholed to be dirt sprint specialists are probably not going to fare well on the engineered surfaces.

Let's get back to my day at the races at Keeneland. The lowest price of the day was a respectable .60 (that's 6-to-5 odds). If we throw out the high and low prices, we get a revised average of .43 (that's nearly 6-to-1 odds). Tossing out the high and low prices brought the average down, but the succeed is still very generous. I guess Polytrack is going to be the wild, wild west of horse race handicapping.

More On Pedigree (Using With A City As An Example)

A horseplayer must be ready to use all the tools available, including pedigree. Here is an example of how to use pedigree to tease out a horse's performance on Polytrack as opposed to dirt. It is a piece I wrote on With A City (unfortunately euthanized April 24, 2006) and his chances for the 2006 Kentucky Derby.

With A City: I dusted off my copy of the July 23, 2005 Daily Racing Form, and flipped the pages until I found race 10 for Calder, and stared at the page. It was a six panel sprint on the dirt to be run under starter allowance conditions. A nondescript field of seven 2-year-olds stared back at me. The eventual winner, Beit's Bridge, had two prior races, a win in a maiden claiming sprint at Calder and a 5th place end under starter allowance conditions, also at Calder. The eventual second place finisher, Suave Jazz, had won his maiden claiming debut at Calder. Suave Jazz has gone on to win a miniature over ,000 in 2006. The fifth place finisher in the July 23 starter allowance was a 2-year-old by the name of With a City, losing by nearly 10 lengths as the betting favorite. That is how things were going for With a City early in his career. It's not all bad. He won his debut easily, a maiden claiming sprint at Calder. He ended 3rd and 4th, respectively, in two restricted stakes for Florida-breds at Calder, losing to In Summation in both races by a combined 19 1/2 lengths. With a City managed to win twice on the turf at Calder, and herein lies the clue to his dramatic victory in the Grade 2 Lane's End at Turfway Park, March 25. There appears to be a mild correlation in the middle of success on the turf and success on the new "all weather track" at Turfway Park in Florence, Kentucky. Why is this? maybe it is the "spongy" mixture of the exterior that provides a buffer similar to the natural buffer that grass provides. Also, we know that the pedigree of With a City is influenced by a great source of turf aptitude, his maternal grandsire With Approval. And finally, With a City tried to give us a hint in the Battaglia at Turfway Park, finishing 8th but only four lengths back of the winner (Laity). What does all this mean for With a City's chances in the Kentucky Derby? Not much. The last time I looked, the Derby was run on dirt, and not on grass, and not on an "all weather track." The "poly-tracks" are coming, though, in California, and this is going to turn the handicapping & breeding industries topsy-turvy. None of the old rules will apply, in California anyway.

The Last Word

We have been concentrating on the Polytrack exterior because of its increasing prevalence in American racing. They do still run horse races on grass and on dirt in the U.S., though. anything the surface, the same ideas apply. If today's race is on the turf, then the more lifetime races a horse has on the turf, the more predictable his performance in his next race on turf will be. And if today's race is on the dirt, then the more lifetime races a horse has on the dirt, the more predictable his performance in his next race on dirt will be. The same holds for Polytrack, but there will more surprises on Polytrack at least for the near future. The theorize is simple: not as many races have been run on Polytrack. And that's a method for surprises.

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